Adjustable Algorithmic Tool for Assessing the Effectiveness of Maternal Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Vaccination on Infant Mortality in Developing Countries

Abstract

Acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) due to RSV is a common cause of global infant mortality, with most cases occurring in developing countries. Using data aggregated from priority countries as designated by the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Maternal Child Health and Nutrition (MCHN) program, we created an adjustable algorithmic tool for visualizing the effectiveness of candidate maternal RSV vaccination on infant mortality. Country-specific estimates for disease burden and case fatality rates were computed based on established data. Country-specific RSV-ALRI incidence rates for infants 0-5 months were scaled based on the reported incidence rates for children 0-59 months. Using in-hospital mortality rates and predetermined “inflation factor,” we estimated the mortality of infants aged 0-5 months. Given implementation of a candidate maternal vaccination program, estimated reduction in infant RSV-ALRI incidence and mortality rates were calculated. User input is used to determine the coverage of the program and the efficacy of the vaccine. Using the generated algorithm, the overall reduction in infant mortality varied considerably depending on vaccine efficacy and distribution. Given a potential efficacy of 70% and a maternal distribution rate of 50% in every USAID MCHN priority country, annual RSV-ALRI-related infant mortality is estimated to be reduced by 14,862 cases. The absolute country-specific reduction is dependent on the number of live births; countries with the highest birth rates had the greatest impact on annual mortality reduction. The adjustable algorithm provides a standardized analytical tool in the evaluation of candidate maternal RSV vaccines. Ultimately, it can be used to guide public health initiatives, research funding, and policy implementation concerning the effectiveness of potential maternal RSV vaccination on reducing infant mortality.