Predictive Value of First-Trimester Glycosylated Hemoglobin Levels in Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Chinese Population Cohort Study

Abstract

This study was aimed at exploring the predictive value of first-trimester glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels in the diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). A total of 744 pregnant women registered at the Peking University International Hospital between March 2017 and March 2019 were included in this study. Data on personal characteristics and biochemical indicators of the pregnant women were collected during the first trimester. The International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups has adopted specific diagnostic criteria as the gold standard for the diagnosis of GDM. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve statistics were used to assess the predictive value of first-trimester HbA1c levels in the diagnosis of GDM. HbA1c levels in the first trimester were significantly higher in the GDM group than in the non-GDM group ( $5.23\%\pm 0.29\%$ vs. $5.06\pm 0.28\%$ , $P<0.05$ ). The first-trimester HbA1c level was an independent risk factor for gestational diabetes. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of HbA1c for GDM was 0.655 (95% confidence interval 0.620-0.689, $P<0.001$ ). The positive likelihood ratio was the highest at $\text{HbA}1\text{c}=5.9\%$ , sensitivity was 2.78, and specificity was 99.83%. There was no statistical difference in AUC between fasting blood glucose and HbA1c ( $P=0.407$ ). First-trimester HbA1c levels can be used to predict GDM. The risk of GDM was significantly increased in pregnant women with $\text{first}‐\text{trimester}\text{HbA}1\text{c}\text{levels}>5.9\%$ . There was no statistical difference between first-trimester HbA1c and fasting blood glucose levels in predicting GDM.