Regionalization of the Mortality Risk from Cardiomyopathy and Respiratory Diseases Based on the Maximum Entropy Model

Abstract

This research presents a time‐series study in one of the most polluted regions in Mexico, the southern part of the Mezquital Valley. Three mortality causes related to areas highly contaminated by industrial activities were considered to carry out this model, namely, ischemic cardiomyopathy, mesothelioma, and pneumoconiosis. The pollutant exposure factors used in the maximum entropy modeling were distance to rivers, distance to industries, particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (PM < 2.5 µm), and the digital elevation model (DEM). A model that expresses the presence of the disease by areas of exposure to pollutants was also obtained. In addition, the odds ratio was calculated to evaluate the level of association of ischemic cardiomyopathy (OR = 3.37 and 95% CI: 3.05–3.6) and mesothelioma (OR = 4.79 and 95% CI: 3.5–6.08) by areas of exposure. In the case of pneumoconiosis, only cases in the very high exposure category were recorded, so it was not comparable with the remaining areas. It is important to mention that particulate matter in the municipalities of the Mezquital Valley presented values above 20 μg/m3 and that in accordance with the provisions of the Norma Oficial Mexicana de Salud Ambiental or NOM (translated as Mexican Official Standard for Environmental Health) and the Agency for Toxic Substances and the Disease Registry (ATSDR), high concentrations of particulate matter can have a severe impact on the development of some diseases. In the studied area, ischemic cardiomyopathy and mesothelioma were attributed to pollution in 70.3% and 79.1%, respectively; therefore, pollution mitigation could prevent the occurrence of these two diseases.