Study on Dynamic Interval Power Flow Calculation of Microgrid Based on Monte Carlo Algorithm

Abstract

In order to effectively monitor the stability of the microgrid, based on the advantages of the Monte Carlo algorithm, a dynamic interval power flow calculation method for microgrid is designed. First, based on the multilayer complex structure of the microgrid, the hierarchical topology of its interval structure is analyzed. Then, the micropower flow model is designed, the affine algorithm is used to accurately describe the relationship between the variables in the microgrid structure, and the dynamic interval affine calculation is completed. Therefore, in the dynamic interval of the microgrid, the Monte Carlo probability method is applied to obtain more random data. Based on this, a model is established for the probability of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation to simulate the output characteristics of the microgrid. Finally, the voltage variable, active power variable, and reactive power variable are calculated and embedded in the iterative algorithm to realize the stochastic power flow calculation of the microgrid. After experimental verification, the voltage amplitude calculated using the method proposed in this article has a small error value compared to the actual voltage, with a minimum error value of 0.2, close to 0. Under the condition of convergence accuracy of 10−6, the minimum convergence frequency is 3 times, and the power flow calculation process time does not exceed 38 seconds. This proves that the algorithm has high calculation accuracy, good convergence performance and timeliness, and can provide certain technical support for the stable operation of microgrids.