Day Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Based on the Deep Belief Network

Abstract

With the reform of electric power system, major progress has been made in the construction of the electricity market. Electricity prices are a key influencing factor in the electricity market, and each participant trades electricity based on the price of electricity. Therefore, improving the accuracy of electricity price forecasts is important for every player in the electricity market. Prediction using single-layer neural networks has limited accuracy. Due to the high accuracy of machine learning in forecasting, the method of deep belief network is used to predict the price of electricity in the future. Real data from the U.S. PJM electricity market are used for simulation and compared with the prediction models of other neural networks. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the deep belief network model is higher, and the use of the deep belief network can provide an effective method for China’s electricity sales companies to predict electricity prices.