Estimation of Food Security Risk Level UsingZ-Number-Based Fuzzy System

Abstract

Fuzzy logic systems based on If-Then rules are widely used for modelling of the systems characterizing imprecise and uncertain information. These systems are basically based on type-1 fuzzy sets and allow handling the uncertain and imprecise information to some degree in the developed models. Zadeh extended the concept of fuzzy sets and proposedZ-number characterized by two components, constraint and reliability parameters, which are an ordered pair of fuzzy numbers. Here, the first component is used to represent uncertain information, and the second component is used to evaluate the reliability or the confidence in truth.Z-number is an effective approach to solving uncertain problems. In this paper,Z-number-based fuzzy system is proposed for estimation of food security risk level. To construct fuzzy If-Then rules, the basic parameters cereal yield, cereal production, and economic growth affecting food security are selected, and the relationship between these input parameters and risk level are determined through If-Then fuzzy rules. The fuzzy interpolative reasoning is proposed for construction of inference mechanism of aZ-number-based fuzzy system. The designed system is tested using Turkey cereal data for assessing food security risk level and prediction periods of the food supply.