Affiliation:
1. School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
Abstract
This study proposes to use the fractional-order accumulation grey model (FGM) combined with the fractional-order buffer operator to predict the cumulative confirmed cases in different stages of COVID-19. In the early stages of COVID-19 outbreak, when the cumulative confirmed cases increased rapidly, we used the strengthening buffer operator in the prediction process. After the government’s prevention measures started to take effect, the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases slows down. Therefore, the weakening buffer operator is applied in the prediction process. The fractional order of the buffer operator is derived from the historical data, which are more relevant. The empirical analysis of seven countries’ data shows that the FGM with the fractional-order buffer operator achieves the best results for most cases. The fractional-order buffer operator improves the prediction accuracy of the FGM in this study. Our study also suggests a practical way for predicting the trend of epidemic diseases.
Funder
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Cited by
2 articles.
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