Estimating Lane Change Duration for Overtaking in Nonlane-Based Driving Behavior by Local Linear Model Trees (LOLIMOT)

Abstract

Lane change (LC) is one of the main maneuvers in traffic flow. Many studies have estimated LC duration directly by using lane-based data. The current research presents an estimate of LC duration for overtaking maneuver in nonlane-based traffic flow. In this paper, the LC duration is estimated implicitly by modeling lateral speed and applying the length of required lateral movement to complete the LC maneuver. In lateral speed modeling, the local linear model tree is applied which consists of three variables: the initial lateral distance, longitudinal speed, and time to collision (TTC), which itself is a function of the relative speed of follower and the distance between the two vehicles. The initial lateral distance is the relative transverse distance from which the following vehicle initializes the LC. The range of lateral speed was estimated between 0.5 and 5 km/h, which resulted in the LC duration between 2.5 and 24 sec. The results indicate that the lateral and longitudinal speed would be inversely related, while the lateral speed and the initial transverse distance as well as TTC would be directly related. The findings also indicate that TTC can be assumed as the most important factor affecting lateral speed. TTC at 8 sec can be considered as the threshold for its effect on the LC duration since at longer TTCs, and the lateral speed has remained almost constant. When TTC is longer than 8 sec, it would not affect the LC duration.