Short-Term Demand Forecast of E-Commerce Platform Based on ConvLSTM Network

Abstract

Based on real sales data, this article constructed LGBM and LSTM sales prediction models to compare and verify the performance of the proposed models. In this article, we forecast the product sales of stores in the future T + 3 days and use MAPE as the evaluation index. The experiment shows that the product sales prediction model based on the convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) network has better prediction accuracy. From a store point of view, ConvLSTM prediction model MAPE was 0.42 lower than the long short-term memory (LSTM) network and 0.68 lower than LGBM. From the perspective of commodity categories, different commodity categories are suitable for different forecasting methods. Some categories are suitable for regression forecasting, while others are suitable for time-series forecasting. Among the categories suitable for time-series forecasting, the ConvLSTM model performs the best.