Optimal Intensity Measures for Probabilistic Seismic Stability Assessment of Large Open-Pit Mine Slopes under Different Mining Depths

Abstract

The dynamic stability of slopes is the key to ensure the safety of a large open-pit mine during and after a strong earthquake. This study was mainly focused on the identification of optimal intensity measures (IMs) for the probabilistic seismic stability assessment of large open-pit mine slopes within the framework of performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE). To this end, four open-pit slopes with different mining depths were constructed as the reference cases for the numerical investigation. The randomness of input ground motions and the uncertainty of material properties of the slopes were also considered. A total of 96 ground-motion records and 29 common IMs were selected for testing. By a series of nonlinear time-history analyses, the probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs) between the minimum factor of safety (FOS) of slopes and all considered IMs were developed. The optimal IMs with respect to FOS were identified based on the evaluation of five criteria: correlation, efficiency, practicality, proficiency, and sufficiency. The impacts on seismic fragility and FOS response hazard of the slopes were discussed when using different IMs. The results reveal that sustained maximum velocity (SMV) and velocity spectrum intensity (VSI) are recognized as the optimal IM for a mining depth of 50 m and 100 m, respectively. However, Housner intensity (HI) is observed to have the best predictability for both the mining depths of 200 m and 300 m. Moreover, for the three most commonly used IMs, peak ground velocity (PGV) is superior to peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at first mode period (Sa (T1)) for different mining depths. Finally, based on the evaluations of seismic fragility and FOS response hazard, the uncertainty of seismic stability prediction of open-pit slopes can be greatly reduced when using a more appropriate or optimal IM.