Mathematical Modeling to Determine the Fifth Wave of COVID-19 in South Africa

Author:

Sunthrayuth Pongsakorn1ORCID,Khan Muhammad Altaf2ORCID,Alshammari Fehaid Salem3ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi (RMUTT), Thanyaburi, Pathumthani 12110, Thailand

2. Institute for Ground Water Studies, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of the Free State, South Africa

3. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh 11432, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

The aim of this study is to predict the COVID-19 infection fifth wave in South Africa using the Gaussian mixture model for the available data of the early four waves for March 18, 2020-April 13, 2022. The quantification data is considered, and the time unit is used in days. We give the modeling of COVID-19 in South Africa and predict the future fifth wave in the country. Initially, we use the Gaussian mixture model to characterize the coronavirus infection to fit the early reported cases of four waves and then to predict the future wave. Actual data and the statistical analysis using the Gaussian mixture model are performed which give close agreement with each other, and one can able to predict the future wave. After that, we fit and predict the fifth wave in the country and it is predicted to be started in the last week of May 2022 and end in the last week of September 2022. It is predicted that the peak may occur on the third week of July 2022 with a high number of 19383 cases. The prediction of the fifth wave can be useful for the health authorities in order to prepare themselves for medical setup and other necessary measures. Further, we use the result obtained from the Gaussian mixture model in the new model formulated in terms of differential equations. The differential equations model is simulated for various values of the model parameters in order to determine the disease’s possible eliminations.

Funder

Deputyship for Research and Innovation, Ministry of Education in Saudi Arabia

Publisher

Hindawi Limited

Subject

General Immunology and Microbiology,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Medicine

Cited by 2 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3