Factors Prognostic of Survival in Liver Transplant Recipients with Hepatitis B Virus Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Abstract

Objectives. Factors prognostic of survival in liver transplant (LT) recipients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) remain unclear. This study evaluated risk factors for survival in LT recipients with HBV-ACLF and determined the scoring system optimal for assessing patient prognosis. Methods. This retrospective study included 323 HBV-ACLF related patients undergoing LT, including 112, 146, and 65 patients with HBV-ACLF grades 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Overall survival (OS) was estimated by the Kaplan–Meier method, and factors associated with survival were analysed by multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Pretransplant prognostic scoring systems were compared by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results. The one-year survival rate was significantly lower in HBV-ACLF grade 3 (80.0%) than in grades 1 (93.8%) and 2 (91.8%) recipients ( $p=0.0063$ ). Cox multivariate analysis showed that age >53 years (hazard ratio (HR) 3.731; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.640–8.407), WBC count >8.6 × 109/L (HR 4.544; 95% CI 1.140–18.107), HBV-ACLF 3 (HR 2.729; 95% CI 1.050–7.096), and cold ischaemia time >8.5 hours (HR 2.867; 95% CI, 1.38–5.921) were independently prognostic of 1-year survival. Comparisons of pretransplant scoring systems showed that chronic liver failure-consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was superior to COSSH-ACLF, MELD-Na, and MELD scores in predicting 1-year OS in these patients. Conclusions. Age >53 years, WBC counts >8.6 × 109/L, HBV-ACLF grade 3, and cold ischaemia time >8.5 hours are independently prognostic of OS in LT recipients with HBV-ACLF. CLIF-C ACLFs is superior to other scoring methods in predicting 1-year OS in these patients.