Risk-Optimized Design of Production Systems by Use of GRAMOSA

Abstract

Today production and logistic systems are getting more complex. This is a problem which the planning and design of such systems have to deal with. One main issue of production system development in series production is the planning of production processes and systems under uncertainty. New and existing production technologies are often not fully adoptable to new products. This is why some of the main characteristics, like, for example, cost, time, or quality, are not definable at the beginning. Only value ranges and probabilities can be estimated. However, the adaptation process is controllable, which means that the adaptation results are depending on the existing development budget and its resources. This paper presents an approach for the optimized allocation of development resources regarding the adaptation risks of production technologies and processes. The modeling concept GRAMOSA is used for integrated modeling and discrete event-based simulation of the aspired production system. To this end a domain-specific modeling language (DSML) is applied. The further risk-based analysis of the simulation results and the optimized allocation of the development budget are done by use of mathematical optimization.