A Car-Following Model Based on Quantified Homeostatic Risk Perception

Abstract

This study attempts to elucidate individual car-following behavior using risk homeostasis theory (RHT). On the basis of this theory and the stimulus-response concept, we develop a desired safety margin (DSM) model. Safety margin, defined as the level of perceived risk in car-following processes, is proposed and considered to be a stimulus parameter. Acceleration is assessed in accordance with the difference between the perceived safety margin (perceived level of risk) and desired safety margin (acceptable level of risk) of a driver in a car-following situation. Sixty-three cases selected from Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) are used to calibrate the parameters of the proposed model for general car-following behavior. Other eight cases with two following cars taken from NGSIM are used to validate the model. A car-following case with stop-and-go processes is also used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed model. The simulation results are then compared with the calculations derived using the Gazis-Herman-Rothery (GHR) model. As a result, the DSM and GHR models yield similar results and the proposed model is effective for simulation of car following. By adjusting model parameters, the proposed model can simulate different driving behaviors. The proposed model gives a new way to explain car-following process by RHT.