Performance Comparison between the Specific and Baseline Prediction Models of Ecotoxicity for Pharmaceuticals: Is a Specific QSAR Model Inevitable?

Abstract

Assessing the ecotoxicity of pharmaceuticals is of urgent need due to the recognition of their possible adverse effects on nontarget organisms in the aquatic environment. The reality of ecotoxicity data scarcity promotes the development and application of quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models. In the present study, we aimed to clarify whether a QSAR model of ecotoxicity specifically for pharmaceuticals is needed considering that pharmaceuticals are a class of chemicals with complex structures, multiple functional groups, and reactive properties. To this end, we conducted a performance comparison of two previously developed and validated QSAR models specifically for pharmaceuticals with the commonly used narcosis toxicity prediction model, i.e., Ecological Structure Activity Relationship (ECOSAR), using a subset of pharmaceuticals produced in China that had not been included in the training datasets of QSAR models under consideration. A variety of statistical measures demonstrated that the pharmaceutical specific model outperformed ECOSAR, indicating the necessity of developing a specific QSAR model of ecotoxicity for the active pharmaceutical contaminants. ECOSAR, which was generally used to predict the baseline or the minimum toxicity of a compound, generally underestimated the ecotoxicity of the analyzed pharmaceuticals. This could possibly be because some pharmaceuticals can react through specific modes of action. Nonetheless, it should be noted that 95% prediction intervals spread over approximately four orders of magnitude for both tested QSAR models specifically for pharmaceuticals.