Analysis and Detection of Road Traffic Accident Severity via Data Mining Techniques: Case Study Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract

Around the world, road traffic accidents are the leading cause of serious injuries and deaths. Ethiopia is one of the countries that suffer the most from traffic accidents. Every government in every country wants to keep its citizens safe from accidents. To keep people safe from accidents, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the factors that contribute to high-severity accidents and deaths. As a result, we developed a data mining algorithm-based road traffic accident severity analysis for the Addis Ababa subcity in this study. The longest frequent factors in the dataset were generated using the Apriori algorithm. The Apriori algorithm generates the most frequent factors as sex: male, driver–vehicle relationship: employee, weather condition: normal, pedestrian movement: not a pedestrian, road surface type: asphalt, and accident severity: high severity, with 42.21% and 84.35% support and confidence, respectively. In addition, we created an accident severity level predictive model using a support vector machine. The predictive model has an accuracy of 85%. The proposed predictive model outperforms other well-known predictive models, such as K-nearest neighbors, decision trees, and random forests. As a result, when making decisions or policies in Ethiopia, the government or private organizations should consider the association of factors that lead to serious severe accidents.