Indonesian Palm Oil Export Analysis

Abstract

Palm oil is a plantation commodity essential to economic occupation in Indonesia due to its capability to make plant-based oil, which is critical to the manufacturing sector. This study aims to analyze the factors affecting Indonesian palm oil exports between 1990-2019. The methods used in this study are testing regression prerequisites (normality and linearity test), classical assumption (multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation test), and multiple linear regression (F, t, and R2) to analyze the factors that affect Indonesian palm oil exports. Based on the outcomes of the F test, it is evident that palm oil production, the USD exchange rate against the IDR, and the global palm oil price collectively influence palm oil exports. As per the t-test results, both production levels and global palm oil prices significantly impact Indonesian palm oil exports. However, the US dollar to Indonesian rupiah exchange rate does not significantly affect palm oil exports due to its fluctuating nature in both the short and long term. These fluctuations introduce uncertainty for exporters engaged in long-term trade agreements with foreign nations. According to the R2 test results, palm oil production, the USD exchange rate against the IDR, and the world palm oil price had a 96.5% impact on Indonesian palm oil exports.