Health Planning and Forecasting

Abstract

In modern conditions, the most important tools of state regulation in carrying out evaluations of the effectiveness of the reforms carried out are forecasting and planning of long-term results taking into account the level of influence of socio-economic and other factors. This is due to the market economy’s inability to regulate itself, especially in crisis situations. Forecasting is closely linked to planning and is the necessary methodological and information basis for the development of plans and programs. Health system reform should be based on addressing systemic health challenges, taking into account socio–economic, demographic and technological trends, and assessment of the effectiveness of reform should capture changes in dynamics. Integrated program and targeted planning provides for the development of medical and social programs, taking into account certain priorities of public health, which makes it possible to concentrate resources on priority areas of health development on the basis of an integrated inter-agency approach to achieving the goals set. With the transition to a market economy, there are signs of indicative planning in health care as a way of consciously, purposefully managing health and economic processes, both in the public, municipal and private health sectors. Indicative planning has proved to be highly effective as a means of public regulation of a market economy. A characteristic feature of indicative planning is the rejection of directionality, command and distribution functions in favor of indicative. Targeted Health Development Programs should use as achievements indicators of resource provision and efficiency of its use, indicators of availability and quality of health care, its safety, timeliness and efficiency, continuity in its provision, satisfaction of consumers, quality of document circulation, etc., which may be influenced by the health management system.