Evaluation of the shock index and different scores in predicting the mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Abstract

The upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is one of the most common causes of the adult emergency admissions. In the UGIB, scoring systems are used to predict the need for clinical intervention or provide insight into prognosis. In this study, we investigated the potential of the shock index to predict 30 day-mortality in comparison with GBS, Rockall Score and AIMS65 score.<br /> <b>Material and methods: </b>This is a retrospective and single-center study conducted in the emergency department. The study included the patients, who admitted to the emergency service due to GIS bleeding complaints, with confirmed diagnosis of upper bleeding, who had endoscopy. The data of the admissions between 01.01.2016 and 01.01.2020 have been used.<br /> <b>Results</b>: There were a total of 141 patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The number of women was 34 (24.1%) and man was 107 (75.9%). The median value of the shock index was 1.6 (1.5 to 1.8). Glasgow Blatchford score median value was 8.0 (6.0 to 11.0). Rockall score median value was 4.0 (2.0 to 5.0). The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC) values of Glasgow Blatchford and Rockall score were 0.63, 0.79 (respectively) for short-term mortality.<br /> <b>Conclusion</b>: We have found that the shock index failed to predict short-term mortality in patients with UGIB. Until more powerful new scoring systems are developed, the Glagow Blatchford and Rockall scoring systems are effective for UGIB patients.