SIMULATION OF CHANGES IN CAR OPERATION RATE DURING THE YEAR

Abstract

Changes in the quality of cars are influenced by the conditions and rate of their operation. Studies usually approximate the change in the operation rate of equipment during the year with harmonic models that allow reflecting the seasonal nature of equipment usage. The range of variating the operation rate is estimated by variation coefficient. At the same time, harmonic models are not always able to describe a set of data on the equipment operation accurately, and the variation coefficient does not show the rate of change in the intensity function of operation by months of the year, which can affect the flows of failures and recovery. In this regard, the study objective is to determine the nature of the change in the car operation rate, in which the accuracy of approximation by harmonic models decreases. The relevance and novelty of the study is in the search for ways to improve the accuracy of simulation modeling of technical operation of cars, which will improve the efficiency of resource management of motor transport enterprises. The paper uses simulation, interpolation and regression methods using Python programming language. The result of the paper is to determine the range boundaries of using harmonic models to describe the nature of changes in the car operation rate, as well as the use of the function gradient along with the variation coefficient as parameters characterizing the range of variation in the operation rate by months of the year.