Trends of Mortalities and Morbidities due to COVID-19, from Explosiveness to Aggressiveness, Gaps in System Response, and Transmission Chain

Abstract

Background: Due to the high prevalence and wide distribution of coronaviruses, their large genetic diversity, frequent recombination of their genomes, and increasing human-animal interface activities, novel coronaviruses are likely to emerge periodically in humans owing to frequent cross-species infections and occasional spillover event. Objectives: The aim of this research is to study the short-term morbidities, mortalities and trends of international spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. In addition, to study the explosiveness and aggressiveness of the outbreak and the gaps in response. Methodology: Outbreak events were observed and followed up over two months. This study used daily statistical reports issued by the World Health Organization, as well as data from different national authorities, regarding mortalities and morbidities from all over the world, with a specific focus on Chinese statistics as the main source of the outbreak. Results: The current study showed that the number of confirmed COVID-19 infected cases started with 41 cases in early January 2020. The number of cases with COVID-19 kept rising to reach 128000 on March 12, 2020. Moreover, the current study has revealed that the number of deaths was only (1) case in early January 2020 and increased to 25 deaths on January 23, and end up with 170 deaths by the end of January. Deaths have dramatically increased to reach 2462 on Feb 23 and 4717 on March 12. In regards to the geographical spread of the COVID-19 infection outbreak, the number of affected countries increased to 100 by mid- March 2020. The number of fatality cases was 0.0368, compared to 0.533 in recovered cases within two months. Conclusion: The natural history and course of the current outbreak revealed a highly explosive nature linked to considerable aggressiveness in terms of complications and mortalities, within only two months, and spread to 100 countries worldwide with 80000 cases within only two months. The study forecasted that the peak of the outbreak is not yet attained, and events that are more dramatic may occur worldwide.