Prediction of Transformer Oil Temperature Based on an Improved PSO Neural Network Algorithm

Abstract

Abstract: In addressing the issue of power transformer oil temperature prediction, traditional back propagation (BP) neural network algorithms have been found to suffer from local optimization and slow convergence. This study proposes an oil temperature prediction model based on an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) neural network algorithm, which introduces an asymmetric adjustment learning factor and a mutation operator. The BP neural network, genetic algorithm (GA) optimization neural network, and the improved PSO neural network are compared by considering various factors, such as ambient temperature, load changes, and the number of cooler groups under different working conditions. Results show that the proposed algorithm improves the actual change trend of oil surface temperature and makes the transformer operation more stable to a certain extent. Background: The mathematical model for predicting transformer oil temperature is clear, but the parameters in the model are uncertain and vary with time. When subjected to different operating conditions, such as ambient temperature, load changes, and the number of cooler groups acting independently or in combination, the prediction results of the oil temperature model vary with different system parameters. Objective: This paper aims to enhance the accuracy of transformer temperature prediction. In order to optimize the oil temperature prediction model, asymmetric adjustment learning factors and mutant operators are added to meet diverse system parameter requirements. Methods: The paper utilizes an oil temperature prediction model based on an improved PSO neural network algorithm, which introduces an asymmetric adjustment learning factor and a mutation operator to address the limitations of the standard PSO algorithm. Results: This paper has employed a fusion algorithm of the genetic algorithm of the BP neural network and the PSO algorithm, and conducted simulation and experimental analysis. The simulation and experimental results demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the fusion algorithm. Conclusion: This study demonstrates enhanced prediction accuracy of transformer oil surface temperature using the improved particle swarm optimization neural network algorithm. This algorithm has less prediction error under different working conditions compared to other algorithms. By increasing population diversity and combining inertia weights, the algorithm not only greatly improves its search performance but also avoids local optimization.