A robust structural design method using the Kriging model to define the probability of design success

Abstract

In this study, a robust optimization method is proposed by introducing the Kriging approximation model and defining the probability of design-success. A key problem in robust optimization is that the mean and the variation of a response cannot be calculated easily. This research presents an implementation of the approximate statistical moment method based on the Kriging metamodel. Furthermore, the statistics using the second-order statistical approximation method are adopted to avoid the local robust optimum. Thus, the probability of design-success, which is defined as the probability of satisfying the imposed design requirements, is represented as a function of approximate mean and variance. The formulation for the robust optimization can be defined as the probability of design-success of each response. The mathematical problem and the design problems of a two-bar structure and microgyroscope are investigated for the validation of the proposed method.