Prediction of the long-term electric power demand under the influence of A/C systems

Abstract

This paper examines the long-term power demand behaviour under the influence of air-conditioning (A/C) systems in Kuwait. An artificial neural network- (ANN-) based simulation model has been developed to forecast the long-term power demand considering different A/C-system quantity import scenarios. Beside the A/C factor, four socio-economic factors are utilized as inputs for the simulation model, including gross national product, population, number of buildings, and historic peak power demand. The baseline scenario shows that the peak power demand will reach 27 440 MW by the year 2025, with an average annual power growth rate of 5.9 per cent. The A/C import quantity scenario shows that an average A/C import quantity change of 1 per cent is proportionate to an ∼1.1 per cent change in power demand.