Advances in probabilistic design: Manufacturing knowledge and applications

Abstract

Product lifetime prediction, cost and weight optimization have enormous implications for the business of engineering manufacture. Deterministic design fails to provide the necessary understanding of the nature of manufacture, material properties, in-service loading and their variation. Probabilistic approaches offer much potential in this connection, but have yet to be taken up widely by manufacturing industry. This paper reports on advances in probabilistic design made possible through new progress in manufacturing engineering. Methods for predicting process capability indices for given design geometry, material and processing route, and for estimating material property and loading stress variation, are developed to augment probabilistic design formulations. The techniques are used in conjunction with failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to facilitate the setting of reliability targets for design schemes. A case study is included to illustrate the application of the methods and the benefits that can accrue from their usage.