Forecasting the electricity pricing of energy islands with renewable sources

Abstract

The strategy for the development of local low-power systems involves the use of several sources. The efficiency of functioning such systems depends on the purposeful reliability management and it is based on the rational hierarchical connections of their structural components. Coordination of the structure of diversified sources and their participation in the formation of energy balance of micro-energy systems in the conditions of dynamic development of renewable energy is an actual research task. The purpose of research was to develop a method of reliability-cost optimization of structure of micro-energy systems with dissimilar sources, which is based on the use of reliability indicators and cost of electricity. The studies conducted are based on the modern methods of applied statistical analysis, the theory of reliability, the synthesis of complex multi-aggregate systems. Through the implementation of the Markov model and simulation modeling of the functioning of sources, it has been obtained the conditions for optimal formation of the energy balance of micro-energy system with the lowest cost of electricity, considering the reliability indicators. Computational experiments made it possible to obtain the regularities of cost evolution of electricity and to show its dependence on the structure and algorithms of the sources’ functioning. Using a probabilistic modeling method, it has been proved for the first time that the cost of electricity is sensitive to the ratio availability of renewable sources of primary energy. The practical application of results lies in the increase in efficiency of energy islands through the structural and algorithmic optimization of diversified sources (traditional and renewable) based on determining the cost of electricity