Mathematical model implementation in conditions of uncertainty and possible risks

Abstract

The article presents the theoretical and methodological principles for forecasting and mathematical modeling of possible risks in technological and biotechnological systems. The authors investigated in details the possible approach to the calculation of the goal function and its parameters. Considerable attention is paid to substantiating the correctness of boundary value problems and Cauchy problems. In mechanics, engineering, and biology, Cauchy problems and boundary value problems of differential equations are used to model physical processes. It is important that differential equations have a single physically sound solution. The authors of this article investigate the specific features of boundary value problems and Cauchy problems with boundary conditions in a two-point medium, and determine the conditions for the correctness of such problems in the spaces of power growth functions. The theory of pseudo-differential operators in the space of generalized functions was used to prove the correctness of boundary value problems. The application of the obtained results will make it possible to guarantee the correctness of mathematical models built in conditions of uncertainty and possible risks. As an example of a computational mathematical model that describes the state of the studied object of non-standard shape, the authors considered the boundary value problem of the system of differential equations of thermal conductivity for the embryo under the action of a laser beam. For such a boundary value problem, it is impossible to guarantee the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the system of differential equations. To be sure of the existence of a single solution, it is necessary either not to take into account the three-layer structure of the microbiological object, or to determine the conditions for the correctness of the boundary value problem. Applying the results obtained by the authors, the correctness of the boundary value problem of systems of differential equations of thermal conductivity for the embryo is proved taking into account the three-layer structure of the microbiological object. This makes it possible to increase the accuracy and speed of its implementation on the computer. Key words: forecasting, risk, correctness, boundary value problems, conditions of uncertainty