EVOLUTIONARY PROCESSES OF THE FORMATION OF BASIC APPROACHES REGULATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ORGANIC AQUACULTURE MARKET IN THE GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM

Abstract

In this article considered basic approaches to the formation of methodical approaches to the development of organic aquaculture in the global food system. The market situation is considered and medium-term forecasts of the world markets of fish products and products of aquaculture and organic aquaculture for the period from 2017 to 2029 are based on the results of calculations. The paper presents options for expected changes in prices, production, consumption and trade of fish, fishery products, organic aquaculture. The main risks are substantiated that may affect the world markets of fish farming and organic aquaculture during the next ten years are. It was analyzed and found that the formation of supply for aquaculture products in the world is forecast at the level of more than 91 million tons. Using the most recent data, fisheries and organic aquaculture declined during 2021, while organic aquaculture production increased by 2%. At the same time, production from industry decreased by almost 4%.It has been established that the total loss of income for subjects of economic activity can affect the reduction of fish consumption in developing countries. This is due to the fact that demand is relatively elastic in relation to income, and the variability of weather conditions, due to climate change and the change in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events will have a significant impact on the availability and trade of organic aquaculture products in conditions of extraordinary challenges for both Ukraine and the world. In this article considered approaches to the possibility of applying these forecasts based on stable macroeconomic and climatic conditions during the studied period and makes assumptions about the impact of Chinese policy on the production of organic aquaculture products. From 2017 to 2029, nominal prices for organic aquaculture products are shown to increase by 1.5 to 2.1% per year over the next ten years. Proposals for short-term organic aquaculture production are provided to avoid the problem of labor shortages, to take into account new regulations designed to contain the pandemic and the blockade of transport routes, and to pay attention to the aspects of reducing the demand for fish and fish products at the level of global food supply