Estimating bulk carriers’ main engine power and emissions

Abstract

Great importance is had in understanding the current situation of maritime transport and making predictions about its future. Maritime transport is an essential part of transportation, and correctly predicting installed main engine power has great significance in maritime transport with regard to fuel consumption and the generation of emissions. Nonlinear regression is a method with great potential in making predictions, as it allows for more realistic models to be developed using multiple variables. Vessels' dimensions of carrying capacity, gross tonnage, length, and breadth significantly impact the required main engine power. This article will calculate and estimate the installed main engine power for bulk carriers through nonlinear regression using data for the as yet highest number of bulk carriers (n = 9,174 ships) and compare the results with the studies in the literature. The developed model has an accuracy of 93.2% for six different bulk carrier types (Small, Handysize, Handymax, Panamax, Capesize, and Large Capesize). In addition, the study calculates the emissions these ships produce (NOx, SO2, CO2, HC, PM), estimating and demonstrating a nonlinear linear regression model for these ships' emission amounts. The performed analyses have found the main engine power required per unit of load to decrease as ship size increases. However, these analyses also show the emissions generated per unit of load to decrease as size increases, with Large Capesize vessels being found to have the lowest fuel consumption and emission generation per unit of load.