Plausible alternative future of mangroves and their ecosystem services: Case studies from Asia-Pacific region

Abstract

Over the past few decades, Scenario analysis emerged as a useful tool for environmental decision-making amidst multiple uncertainties. Using the influential drivers of change, Scenarios portray the range of plausible alternative futures useful for quantifying the synergies and trade-offs of vital ecosystem services across multiple development trajectories. In this research, we demonstrate two case examples of the application of Scenarios in quantifying current and future mangrove ecosystem services. The case studies are selected from two representative sites: Tamsui River Estuary in Taiwan and Bhitarkanika mangroves in Odisha, India. Using the combination of Land Change Modeller (LCM) and InVEST ecosystem services simulation Tool, the research demonstrates the application and use of spatially explicit Scenarios for mangroves’ current and future conservation. As such, the case studies identify an ameliorative way of future planning, particularly with respect to the eco-sensitive development of coastal regions and small islands.