Optimal storage policies with wind forecast uncertainties

Abstract

The increase in penetration of wind in the current energy mix is hindered by its high volatility and poor predictability. These shortcomings lead to energy loss and increased deployment of fast ramping generation. The use of energy storage compensates to some extent these negative effects; it plays a buffer role between demand and production. We revisit a model of real storage proposed by Bejan et al.[1]. We study the impact on performance of energy conversion efficiency and of wind prediction quality. Specifically, we provide theoretical bounds on the trade-off between energy loss and fast ramping generation, which we show to be tight for large capacity of the available storage. Moreover, we develop strategies that outperform the proposed fixed level policies when evaluated on real data from the UK grid.