Supporting Exploratory Hypothesis Testing and Analysis

Abstract

Conventional hypothesis testing is carried out in a hypothesis-driven manner. A scientist must first formulate a hypothesis based on what he or she sees and then devise a variety of experiments to test it. Given the rapid growth of data, it has become virtually impossible for a person to manually inspect all data to find all of the interesting hypotheses for testing. In this article, we propose and develop a data-driven framework for automatic hypothesis testing and analysis. We define a hypothesis as a comparison between two or more subpopulations. We find subpopulations for comparison using frequent pattern mining techniques and then pair them up for statistical hypothesis testing. We also generate additional information for further analysis of the hypotheses that are deemed significant. The number of hypotheses generated can be very large, and many of them are very similar. We develop algorithms to remove redundant hypotheses and present a succinct set of significant hypotheses to users. We conducted a set of experiments to show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. The results show that our system can help users (1) identify significant hypotheses efficiently, (2) isolate the reasons behind significant hypotheses efficiently, and (3) find confounding factors that form Simpson’s paradoxes with discovered significant hypotheses.