Economic forecasting by the deterministic-adaptive method

Abstract

Economic forecasting is of great importance when some economic mechanism is changed rapidly as in Russia nowadays. Any economic system is a deterministic-stochastic entity of great complexity. Because of this, informative models which offer the interplay of the most significant factors are inadequate for satisfactory long-term forecasting.The paper describes a forecasting procedure based on the joint use of formalized method (numerical simulation) and adaptive method (simulation with a neural network) when the model structure is formed by incoming information.A combination of forecasts selected by experts allows one to make the most likely forecast from the "fan" of probable tracks.An APL implementation of this procedure has been used for the forecasting of municipal expenditures and has brought significant economic benefits.