Exploiting Real-time Search Engine Queries for Earthquake Detection: A Summary of Results

Abstract

Online search engine has been widely regarded as the most convenient approach for information acquisition. Indeed, the intensive information-seeking behaviors of search engine users make it possible to exploit search engine queries as effective “crowd sensors” for event monitoring. While some researchers have investigated the feasibility of using search engine queries for coarse-grained event analysis, the capability of search engine queries for real-time event detection has been largely neglected. To this end, in this article, we introduce a large-scale and systematic study on exploiting real-time search engine queries for outbreak event detection, with a focus on earthquake rapid reporting. In particular, we propose a realistic system of real-time earthquake detection through monitoring millions of queries related to earthquakes from a dominant online search engine in China. Specifically, we first investigate a large set of queries for selecting the representative queries that are highly correlated with the outbreak of earthquakes. Then, based on the real-time streams of selected queries, we design a novel machine learning–enhanced two-stage burst detection approach for detecting earthquake events. Meanwhile, the location of an earthquake epicenter can be accurately estimated based on the spatial-temporal distribution of search engine queries. Finally, through the extensive comparison with earthquake catalogs from China Earthquake Networks Center, 2015, the detection precision of our system can achieve 87.9%, and the accuracy of location estimation (province level) is 95.7%. In particular, 50% of successfully detected results can be found within 62 s after earthquake, and 50% of successful locations can be found within 25.5 km of seismic epicenter. Our system also found more than 23.3% extra earthquakes that were felt by people but not publicly released, 12.1% earthquake-like special outbreaks, and meanwhile, revealed many interesting findings, such as the typical query patterns of earthquake rumor and regular memorial events. Based on these results, our system can timely feed back information to the search engine users according to various cases and accelerate the information release of felt earthquakes.