A Cloud-Based Black-Box Solar Predictor for Smart Homes

Abstract

The popularity of rooftop solar for homes is rapidly growing. However, accurately forecasting solar generation is critical to fully exploiting the benefits of locally generated solar energy. In this article, we present two machine-learning techniques to predict solar power from publicly available weather forecasts. We use these techniques to develop SolarCast, a cloud-based web service that automatically generates models that provide customized site-specific predictions of solar generation. SolarCast utilizes a “black box” approach that requires only (1) a site’s geographic location and (2) a minimal amount of historical generation data. Since we intend SolarCast for small rooftop deployments, it does not require detailed site- and panel-specific information, which owners may not know, but instead automatically learns these parameters for each site. We evaluate the accuracy of SolarCast’s different algorithms on two publicly available datasets, each containing over 100 rooftop deployments with a variety of attributes (e.g., climate, tilt, orientation, etc.). We show that SolarCast learns a more accurate model using much less data (∼1 month) than prior SVM-based approaches, which require ∼3 months of data. SolarCast also provides a programmatic API, enabling developers to integrate its predictions into energy efficiency applications. Finally, we present two case studies of using SolarCast to demonstrate how real-world applications can leverage its predictions. We first evaluate a “sunny” load scheduler, which schedules a dryer’s energy usage to maximally align with a home’s solar generation. We then evaluate a smart solar-powered charging station, which can optimally charge the maximum number of electric vehicles (EVs) on a given day. Our results indicate that a representative home is capable of reducing its grid demand up to 40% by providing a modest amount of flexibility (of ∼5 hours) in the dryer’s start time with opportunistic load scheduling. Further, our charging station uses SolarCast to provide EV owners the amount of energy they can expect to receive from solar energy sources.