Complex modeling of complicated processes: analytical model parameters adaptation in solving qualimetric problems

Abstract

The relevance of the study is due to the fact that despite the sustainable development of methods and technologies for creating models of various classes and purposes, the tasks of managing their quality (the so-called inverse problems of theoretical qualimetry) are often neglected. For example, in the field of information technology, much more attention is paid to assessing the quality of software products, which is reflected in the corresponding standards. These tasks become especially relevant when models reflect a complex process (CP), and such processes may be unique, and obtaining complete objective data on such CPs prior to modeling is difficult or impossible (accidents and disasters models, military operations, natural disasters, and others like that). The article’s main purpose is to consider the issues of solving the inverse qualimetric problem by parametric adaptation of analytical models to unpredictable possible changes in the complex processes’ nature. The solution to this problem is based on the combined (analytical and simulation) modeling of unique processes. Theoretical qualimetry involves a quantitative assessment of any product's qualitative properties; to ensure the adequacy level of analytical models (based on the results of their parametric adaptation), it is planned to evaluate with the use of well-known metrology principles regarding relative measurement deviations. In this case, detailed simulation modelling results are used as a reference for combined modelling. The complexity of the processes conditiond by the expediency of their polymodel description in order to mutually compensate for the objective deficiencies of heterogeneous models, as well as the use of simulation capabilities to adjust the parameters of analytical models in cases where the use of the latter is due to strict time constraints on obtaining calculation results and developing control actions based onthem. A variant of the formalized statement of the problem of parametric adaptation of analytical models is presented. A presented example that considers the adaptation of parameters of the Lanchestertype analytical model conducted on simulation data. The adaptation of parameters could be carried out in different ways, and the expediency of choosing a certain one is determined by the assessment of mutual deviations of the results of heterogeneous modeling. The results of the calculations witnesses that parametric adaptation can be an effective element in solving one of the key tasks of model qualimetry, namely, ensuring their required qualitative properties. The prospect of further research is to consider the issues of structural adaptation of simulation models to the given conditions for displaying complex processes.