Specifics of modeling and simulation of the risk on the communication and ensure systems

Abstract

The aim of the proposed work is to study the characteristics of modeling and simulation of risk on the ensure systems, as specific communication systems. On the ensure systems case of interest is Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The assessment focuses on predicting the probability of failures that can lead to injury and / or loss of life and / or severe damage to the system and / or environmental damage. The result of PRA modeling is to determine the probability for a particular result, but with severe consequences, and to identify those events or components, which will most likely lead to this result. Risk assessment models are typically use to assess system safety and to decide on resource management to prevent accidents. Results of analyzes performed using analytical models, as well as simulation modeling of risk on ensure systems, under various specific initial conditions, are presented. Based on these results, the peculiarities (advantages and disadvantages), as well as the perspectives of the analytical and simulation modeling, can be seen. Based on the examined examples are illustrated the actual results, related to the principles and peculiarities of the analytical and simulation modeling in the field of the risk assessment in the ensure systems according to the sampling survey.