Affiliation:
1. Bratsk State University
2. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS
Abstract
This paper presents a modification of the analytic hierarchy process in order to increase its efficiency for a multi-criteria comparison of mixes of generating plants in local energy areas during their development. The multi-criteria problem of selecting the most effective ratio of rated capacities is considered for power plants representing a single mix of generating plants during the development of a local energy area in the Khabarovsk Krai. The energy sources are represented by thermal, solar, wind and diesel power plants. The following estimation criteria for alternative solutions were accepted: levelized cost of electricity, ecological effeciency estimation; estimation of public opinion about the consequences involved with the establishment of power plants. In order to solve the multi-criteria problem, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used. When using the original AHP for the set problem, a large quantity of alternatives at the stage of pairwise comparisons were found to represent a perceptible load on a decision maker. Thus, already during the estimation of 10 alternatives according to 5 criteria, decision makers should conduct 225 pairwise comparisons, which may eventually result in an unacceptable consistency of the results. In addition, this requires a procedure accounting for the uncertainty of the decision maker's preferences. The proposed solution represents a method of forming matrices of pairwise comparisons upon criteria. This method consists in generating an interval or fuzzy model of the decision maker's preferences for evaluating pairs of estimates according to the criterion. The proposed method was verified using a numerical example of solving the set problem. The obtained optimum mix of power plants consists of thermal, solar and diesel plants with a power of 30, 35 and 39 mW, respectively. The proposed method ensures a high consistency of the results obtained during alternative pairwise comparisons. In addition, the modified analytic hierarchy process takes into account the non-linear nature of the decision maker's preferences for estimating alternatives according to criteria.
Publisher
Irkutsk National Research Technical University
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