SCENARIO PLANNING OF PERSPECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DOMESTIC PATTERN OF DUAL STUDIES MANAGEMENT

Abstract

In a market economy a higher education estanlishments (HEEs) is viewed as a provider of educational services in the environment of tough competition for funding. Thus, the nature of HEE management processes to a great extent resembles business processes of an enterprise. Recent amendments to the Ukrainian legislation introduce KPI for assessing University efficiency, which has been included into the formula for state funding distribution. All that changes motivate educational institutions to introduce innovations, such as dual studies. Private higher education establishments should have been more interested in such innovations, which may help increase revenues by attracting more applicants, as well as investments from the private sector. However, it should be noted that only one private higher education institution is currently participating in an experiment (Order of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine №1296 as of 15.10.2019) aimed at an introduction of the dual form of education in Ukraine, in contrast to the situation in Germany, where a significant share of dual HEEs are private and their establishment is viewed as a business project and a response to a market demand. This article presents an updated forecast of the spread of dual studies management in Ukraine based on the Bass innovation diffusion model, which takes into account a range of variables (factors of influence). In the absence of public financial or tax instruments to stimulate partnerships of companies and HEEs in a market economy of a developing country, economic actors are very careful when it comes to investing in education. This reduces the number of partners of HEEs needed for dual studies introduction. In addition, HEEs and employers, unlike students, are not ready to introduce such an innovation on a large scale, as it requires the introduction of new management system. According to Bass's diffusion of innovation, there are three possible scenarios of dual studies spread as an innovation accepted by HEEs. The most likely scenario is a pessimistic one, which envisages the introduction of dual studies management in 55 higher education institutions over the next 15 years, which together with 17 HEEs-innovators makes 25% of the total market volume.