An Innovative Approach to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Combating Money Laundering

Abstract

The article summarises the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific debate on the issue of improving the system of combating money laundering. The research’s primary goal is to evaluate the system’s effectiveness in combating money laundering. The study of the issue of evaluating the system’s effectiveness for combating money laundering is carried out in the article in the following logical sequence: informative base forming; determination of terminal events as criteria for the system’s effectiveness for combating money laundering; survival tables construction, which provide for the probability of a court verdict on financial monitoring issues; evaluation of the system’s effectiveness of institutional changes in combating money laundering. Survival analysis methods or survival tables, the Kaplan-Meier method, were used to conduct the research. The developed scientific-methodical approach to evaluating the system’s effectiveness for combating money laundering was approved based on financial monitoring data in Ukraine; the study period was 2009-2022. The time intervals and established probabilities of avoiding punishment for the crime of money laundering were defined based on the analysis. The authors of the article empirically determined that with an increase in the time between the time of the commission of the crime and the time of the court’s conviction, the probability that the court will not be convicted decreases. If three years and seven months pass after the crime, the probability of a guilty verdict will be 50.9%. Based on the obtained calculations, the changes in the organisational and functional composition of the combating money laundering implemented in recent years could have improved the quality of combating money laundering. Further research should be directed to a detailed analysis of the structural elements in the institutional part of the system of combating money laundering to identify the weaknesses of each stage: financial monitoring, investigation and the judicial system.