Risk Prediction of Cerebral Infarction after Anterior Circulation Aneurysm Rupture in an Under-Equipped Centre

Abstract

Background: Morbidity and mortality is high among aneurysm rupture patients. Despite surviving the initial rupture, morbidity is high as they suffer from vasospasm and cerebral infarction (CI). Most prediction tools for CI after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) are complex and are not routinely available in all neurosurgical centres. Current therapies for prevention of CI are still debatable and selective usage among high-risk patients is advised. These factors necessitate a simple prediction model for identifying patients in the high risk group to initiate early preventive treatment of CI. Methods: Patients with anterior circulation aneurysm rupture who underwent surgical clipping were included. Demographic data and factors related to CI were collected to determine significance and were used to develop VINODH score (VS). Results: Two hundred patients were included with a median age of 51 years old. Multivariate analysis proved only four predictors were significant (P < 0.01) for developing CI. These predictors were used for the development of VS which was named after the main author and the model’s sensitivity was 79.0% and specificity was 83.0%. This highly predictive score (receiver operating characteristic [ROC]: 0.902) was internally validated. Conclusion: VS is a reliable tool for early identification of patients at risk of CI after aneurysmal SAH.