Indirect Effects of PM_2.5 Exposure on COVID-19 Mortality in Greater Jakarta, Indonesia: An Ecological Study

Abstract

Background: Air pollution, including PM2.5, was suggested as one of the primary contributors to COVID-19 fatalities worldwide. Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, was recognized as one of the ten most polluted cities globally. Additionally, the incidence of COVID-19 in Jakarta surpasses that of all other provinces in Indonesia. However, no study has investigated the correlation between PM2.5 concentration and COVID-19 fatality in Jakarta. Objective: To investigate the correlation between short-term and long-term exposure to PM2.5 and COVID-19 mortality in Greater Jakarta area. Methods: An ecological time-trend study was implemented. The data of PM2.5 ambient concentration obtained from Nafas Indonesia and the National Institute for Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN)/National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN). The daily COVID-19 death data obtained from the City’s Health Office. Findings: Our study unveiled an intriguing pattern: while short-term exposure to PM2.5 showed a negative correlation with COVID-19 mortality, suggesting it might not be the sole factor in causing fatalities, long-term exposure demonstrated a positive correlation. This suggests that COVID-19 mortality is more strongly influenced by prolonged PM2.5 exposure rather than short-term exposure alone. Specifically, our regression analysis estimate that a 50 µg/m3 increase in long-term average PM2.5 could lead to an 11.9% rise in the COVID-19 mortality rate. Conclusion: Our research, conducted in one of the most polluted areas worldwide, offers compelling evidence regarding the influence of PM2.5 exposure on COVID-19 mortality rates. It emphasizes the importance of recognizing air pollution as a critical risk factor for the severity of viral respiratory infections.