Agent-Based Modelling for the Cost-Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Strategies: A Case Study from Inuit Nunangat

Abstract

This paper presents a case study of how agent-based modelling can be utilized to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of two differing adaptational strategies to resource insecurity. Using Inuit Nunangat (the Canadian Arctic) as the setting, models are developed to represent two adaptational strategies in response to the onset of the Little Ice Age: exchange with other communities via long-distance trade and intensification of local resource procurement. After determining the average kilograms of resources acquired through a model of local resource procurements, two models were then developed to determine under what scenarios long-distance journeys to procure perishable food goods would be more productive than hunting locally. Ultimately, the results showed that while there are scenarios where undertaking a trading journey would result in a higher average amount of resources acquired, those scenarios would not have been realistic for most Thule communities, leaving hunting locally as the more beneficial adaptational strategy on an economic basis.