Abstract
The issues of forecasting the spread of diseases have been of particular importance for a long time, even more than 100 years ago, but over the past two decades there has been an increased interest in mathematical epidemiology in the world and in connection with the emergence of new and poorly studied infectious diseases. The purpose of this study is to analyze the trends in the development of morbidity forecasting in the modern conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the framework of the study, current literary and statistical data were provided, the analysis was based on various scientific publications on predicting the spread of diseases of the population in the Russian Federation and in the world; analysis of the situation and methods of combating the spread of a new coronavirus infection, the main factors affecting the spread of diseases were identified, the main characteristics were given and their significance was determined, such methods as: studying and generalizing experience, bibliographic, informational and analytical, statistical. Thus, methodological approaches to predicting the spread of diseases cannot be used separately from the entire existing healthcare system. As a result, competent planning of preventive and anti-epidemic measures is necessary, as well as effective allocation of health resources, especially during epidemics and pandemics; and the results of the study can serve as materials for further study of problems related to the threat of the spread of diseases, scientific search for solutions to the problems of the organization of the health system, as well as in the educational process at the stage of higher and additional medical education.
Publisher
PANORAMA Publishing House
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