Development of expert assessment methods in planning energy supply of buildings with renewable energy sources

Abstract

The object of research is the process of expert evaluation in planning the energy supply of buildings using renewable energy sources. The conducted research is based on the application of system analysis methods to formalize the process of expert evaluation in the planning of an energy system with renewable energy sources. Here were used methods of expert evaluation of characteristics of qualitative criteria, methods of the theory of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic for the formation of the value of criteria, and methods of estimating the reliability of the expert evaluation. Methods of structural analysis and functional modelling of information systems are used to build structural and functional models of the expert evaluation process. The issue of creating an appropriate information system for planning a power system with renewable energy sources is considered. One of the components of the information system is the unit for evaluating candidate experts. A six-level algorithm of the hierarchical structure of expert selection is proposed. As a result of the algorithm, an expert group is formed. This paper shows the process of narrowing the circle of experts from twenty to three candidates. The list of criteria influencing the choice of experts is formed: length of service, availability of the certificate, the efficiency of decision-making, education. The process of assessing the stability of experts' opinions is shown. It is proposed to use the method of processing the opinions of experts to find the value of the membership functions of qualitative criteria. As a result of the study, a group of three experts was formed, whose opinions are taken into account when choosing alternatives to the energy system. In accordance with the proposed information technology of energy supply planning of buildings using renewable energy sources, an information system in the form of a web-oriented application is proposed. A separate part of the information system is a subsystem for working with experts. The diagram of sequence of actions of the expert and the interface of work with system is developed. The use of the information system allowed to increase the efficiency of questionnaires of experts and decision-making on the choice of the optimal structure of the power system as a whole.