The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle in Canada and the United States: Two Solitudes?

Author:

Siklos Pierre L.1,Lavender Brady2

Affiliation:

1. Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario

2. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Toronto, Ontario

Abstract

Recent events highlight the relationship between credit availability and aggregate output. Macroeconomic models for Canada are estimated to investigate links between non-price lending standards, business loans, and output. US macroeconomic and financial market conditions are allowed to impact the Canadian economy. Responses to financial shocks differ in the two countries. Real-time data have a significant impact on the results. The United States and Canada may be “two solitudes” insofar as the impact of credit conditions is concerned. Differences in the quality of banking supervision and in the effectiveness of monetary policies in the two countries may partially explain the results.

Publisher

University of Toronto Press Inc. (UTPress)

Subject

Public Administration,Sociology and Political Science

Reference39 articles.

1. Bank of Canada. N.d.a. “Credit Conditions: Business Credit.” Accessed 23 April 2015 at http://credit.bankofcanada.ca/businesscredit

2. Bank of Canada. N.d.b. “Credit Conditions: Financial Conditions Index.” Accessed 23 April 2015 at http://credit.bankofcanada.ca/financialconditions/fci.

3. Bank of Canada. N.d.c. “Senior Loan Officer Survey.” Accessed 23 April 2015 at http://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/slos/

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