The Prediction of Recidivism with Aboriginal Offenders: A Theoretically Informed Meta-Analysis

Abstract

Research has established eight theoretically based central risk/need factors predictive of recidivism; however, there is little research examining the applicability of these risk factors to Aboriginal offenders. A meta-analysis was undertaken to examine whether (1) criminal history, (2) pro-criminal attitudes, (3) pro-criminal associates, (4) antisocial personality pattern, (5) employment/education, (6) family/marital, (7) substance abuse, and (8) leisure/recreation are applicable to Aboriginal offenders and whether these factors predict recidivism equally well for this group as they do for non-Aboriginal offenders. Thirty-two reports/articles and 12 data sets were reviewed which yielded 49 independent samples producing 1,908 effect sizes. Using both random and fixed effects analyses, results indicated that all of the central eight risk/need factors were predictive of general and violent recidivism for Aboriginal offenders; however, some factors predicted significantly better for non-Aboriginal offenders. This review also examined other factors (e.g., history of victimization and emotional factors) and there was an attempt to evaluate Aboriginal-specific risk factors (e.g., cultural identity) but no empirical studies existed on the latter. Limitations and future directions are discussed, but overall, the results support the position that the central eight risk factors are valid predictors of recidivism for Aboriginal offenders.