Épisodes d’inactivité et revenus criminels dans une trajectoire de délinquance

Abstract

The instability of criminal activity over time is already well documented. However, little is known of the circumstances that can explain these short-term variations. It is possible that short-term transitions and changes precede turning points in criminal careers. For example, conditions that account for the temporary interruption of criminal activity might help explain a more definitive desistance from crime. Therefore, it appears appropriate to improve our knowledge of these factors. The study is based on the trajectories of 172 offenders involved in lucrative forms of crime. It focuses on changes in criminal earnings and episodes of temporary desistance within a window period of 36 months. The life history calendars method, combined with hierarchical models, is used for the analysis of the role of static (individual characteristics) and dynamic (life circumstances) factors in order to understand variations in criminal activity on a monthly basis. Results highlight the importance of events that mark offenders’ lifestyles and the parameters that characterize criminal involvement in predicting variations in observed trajectories. They also emphasize the importance of criminal achievement in explaining the decision of offenders to temporarily stop their illegal activities.