Development stages of ethnic contact zones in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania since the end of the 19th century

Abstract

The analysis of changes in the ethnic structure of the population is one of the most cen­tral topics in the study of the development of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This work aims to identify stages in the evolution of ethno-contact zones in the Baltic States, using ethnic statistics from the end of the 19th century to the present. This study employs, for the first time, a methodology for identifying stages of ethnic contact zone development. This metho­dology simultaneously considers the direction of change in the ethnic mosaic index used to determine the phases of growth and dissolution of ethnic contact zones and the positive or negative dynamics of the proportion of titular ethnic groups. The ethnic mosaic index helped identify five prominent ethnic contact zones: the capitals of the Baltic countries, Ida-Viru County in Estonia and the Latgale region in Latvia. Over the past century and a half, these ethnic contact zones have exhibited three different types of dynamics. The first is characteristic of Tallinn, Riga and the Latgale region, where phases of ethnic contact zone growth and dissolution alternate as the proportion of titular ethnic groups changes in response to the vicissitudes of history. The second is peculiar to the Estonian county of Ida-Virumaa, which has experienced phases of ethnic contact zone development and an increase in the non-titular population. The third, exemplified by Vilnius, combines phases of ethnic contact zone growth and dissolution with a rise in the proportion of the titular ethnic group. The proposed methodology can be extended to the analysis of ethnic contact zone development in other territories as well.