Population replacement in Latvia: current state and prospects

Abstract

This article analyses fertility rate trends in Latvia over a medium-term period of 53 years, from 1970 to 2022, aiming to predict the immediate prospects for population replacement. The novelty of this interdisciplinary research, which encompasses demography, mathematics, economics and sociology, lies in applying mathematical analysis to the study of socio-demographic processes, which has not been attempted before by Latvian or international researchers. Moreover, this study is the first to draw on the theory of economic cycles to identify demographic cycles and their phases in Latvia and predict the near-term birth rate in Latvia. Furthermore, analysing comparative data from 2004 and 2022 sociological surveys cast light on the principal cause of Latvia’s declining fertility rate. This shift is due to changes in societal values, where the family and children no longer hold a central place, which is particularly true of women in Latvia. Consumerism-driven value changes have ceased to be a sine qua non of achieving their life goals and ambitions. Facilitating an increase in the fertility rate would require considering Latvian society’s values and pursuing socioeconomic policies that comprise both internal measures, such as increasing residents’ financial security, and external initiatives, including neighbourliness promotion. Latvia’s fertility rates will continue to decline for several more years until the trough of the following demographic cycle is reached, which will be lower than that of the previous cycle. There will be an upturn within the linear downward trend in birth rates – but even this anticipated rise will not reach the earlier peak. Thus, as the findings of the study suggest, the projected increase in Latvia’s total fertility rate to 1.77 children per woman, as envisioned by the FAMILY — LATVIA — 2030 (2050) Population Reproduction Strategy, is practically unattainable by 2027.